Showing 1 - 10 of 32,165
. We propose a modified version of the AIC (Akaike information criterion). This criterion requires the estimation of the … show that the proposed modified criterion estimates the model orders more accurately than the standard AIC and AICc … (corrected AIC) in large samples and often in small samples. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008685162
We consider portmanteau tests for testing the adequacy of vector autoregressive moving-average (VARMA) models under the assumption that the errors are uncorrelated but not necessarily independent. We relax the standard independence assumption to extend the range of application of the VARMA...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008602744
Criterion (AIC)?, and (ii) Is BIC better than AIC for forecasting purposes? By using simulated data, we provide statistical … type-I error. Both testing procedures deliver the same result: The BIC shows an in- and out-of-sample superiority over AIC …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011107307
This paper introduces a two-step procedure for convex penalized estimation in dynamic location-scale models. The method uses a consistent, non-sparse first-step estimator to construct a convex Weighted Least Squares (WLS) optimization problem compatible with the Least Absolute Shrinkage and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015214778
estimator of the Kullback-Leibler discrepancy, originally used to derive AIC-based criteria. Moreover, this criterion requires … cover linear representations of general nonlinear processes. We propose a modified criterion to the corrected AIC (Akaïke … criterion estimates the models orders more accurately than the standard AIC and AICc in large samples and often in small samples. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015222066
. We propose a modified version of the AIC (Akaike information criterion). This criterion requires the estimation of the … show that the proposed modified criterion estimates the model orders more accurately than the standard AIC and AICc … (corrected AIC) in large samples and often in small samples. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015223101
This is a summary of the paper entitled : “The Mean Squared Prediction Error Paradox”. In that paper, we show that traditional comparisons of Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) between two competing forecasts may be highly controversial. This is so because when some specific conditions of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015229363
This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015229382
I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015230637
I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015233042