We propose a new reference price framework for brand choice. In this framework, we employ a Markov-switching process with an absorbing state to model unobserved price recall of households. Reference prices result from the prices households are able to remember. Our model can be used to learn how...

The geometric distributed lag model, after application of the so-called Koyck transformation, is often used to establish the dynamic link between sales and advertising. This year, the Koyck model celebrates its 50th anniversary.In this paper we focus on the econometrics of this popular model,and...

A key application of long memory time series models concerns inflation. Long memory implies that shocks have a long-lasting effect. It may however be that empirical evidence for long memory is caused by neglecting one or more level shifts. Since such level shifts are not unlikely for inflation,...

We present a road map for effective application of Bayesian analysis of a class of well-known dynamic econometric models by means of the Gibbs sampling algorithm. Members belonging to this class are the Cochrane-Orcutt model for serial correlation, the Koyck distributed lag model, the Unit Root...

A Bayesian model averaging procedure is presented within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes and applied to two empirical issues. First, stability of the "Great Ratios" in U.S. macro-economic time series is investigated, together with the presence and e¤ects of permanent...

Economic forecasts and policy decisions are often informed by empirical analysis based on econometric models. However, inference based upon a single model, when several viable models exist, limits its usefulness. Taking account of model uncertainty, a Bayesian model averaging procedure is...

Bartlett's paradox has been taken to imply that using improper priors results in Bayes factors that are not well defined, preventing model comparison in this case. We use well understood principles underlying what is already common practice, to demonstrate that this implication is not true for...

Several frequentist and Bayesian model averaging schemes, including a new one that simultaneously allows for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy over a set of simulation experiments. Artificial data are generated,...

Jan Tinbergen was the first Nobel Laureate in Economics in 1969. This paper presents a brief survey of his many contributions to economics, in particular to macro-econometric modelling, business cycle analysis, economic policy making, development economics, income distribution, international...

In this paper we show some further experiments with neural network sampling, a class of sampling methods that make use of neural network approximations to (posterior) densities, introduced by Hoogerheide et al. (2007). We consider a method where a mixture of Student's t densities, which can be...