It is well known that an equilibrium in the Arrow-Debreu model may fail to exist if a very restrictive condition called the survival assumption is not satisfied. We study two approaches that allow for the relaxation of this condition. Danilov and Sotskov (1990), and Florig (2001) developed a...

Macroeconomic forecasts are frequently produced, published, discussed and used. The formal evaluation of such forecasts has a long research history. Recently, a new angle to the evaluation of forecasts has been addressed, and in this review we analyse some recent developments from that...

We introduce a multi-level smooth transition model for a panel of time series variables, which can be used to examine the presence of common non-linear features across many such variables. The model is positioned in between a fully pooled model, which imposes such common features, and a fully...

In this note we derive the expected total discounted profit of an insurer due to a single policy holder within a third-party liability insurance. We consider both a policy holder claiming optimally and non-optimally.

We demonstrate that the data generating process (DGP) of China’s cumulated quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP, current prices), as it is reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, can be (very closely) approximated by a simple rule. This rule is that annual growth in any...

One of the stylized facts in financial and international economics is that of increasing predictability of variables such as exchange rates and stock returns at longer horizons. This fact is based upon applications of long horizon regressions, from which the typical findings are that the point...

Statistical inference in nested linear models that result from linear restrictions on the parameters of encompassing linear models can be considered to result from the conditional distribution under the encompassing model. We extend this reasoning to nested models that result from general...

Various ways of extracting macroeconomic information from a data-rich environment are compared with the objective of forecasting yield curves using the Nelson-Siegel model. Five issues in factor extraction are addressed, namely, selection of a subset of the available information, incorporation...

This paper proposes a deep cut version of the ellipsoid algorithm for solving a general class of continuous convex programming problems. In each step the algorithm does not require more computational effort to construct these deep cuts than its corresponding central cut version. Rules that...

In this paper we examine the forecasting performance of five nonlinear GARCH(1,1) models. Four of these have recently been proposed in literature, while the fifth model is a new one. All five models allow for switching persistence of shocks, depending on the value and/or sign of recent returns....