A major problem in applying neural networks is specifying the size of the network. Even for moderately sized networks the number of parameters may become large compared to the number of data. In this paper network performance is examined while reducing the size of the network through the use of...

The effect which the oil price time series has on the long run properties of Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) models for price levels and import demand is investigated. As the oil price variable is assumed to be weakly exogenous for the long run parameters, a cointegration testing procedure allowing...

Exchange rates typically exhibit time-varying patterns in both means and variances. The histograms of such series indicate heavy tails. In this paper we construct models which enable a decision-maker to analyze the implications of such time series patterns for currency risk management. Our...

Experts often add domain knowledge to model-based forecasts while aiming to reduce forecast errors. Indeed, there is some empirical evidence that expert-adjusted forecasts improve forecast quality. However, surprisingly little is known about what experts actually do. Based on a large and...

This paper conjectures that the behaviour of experts who adjust statistical-model-based forecasts obeys the Law of Small Numbers [LSN]. To put this hypothesis to an empirical test, I propose a simple but effective methodology. It is applied to a database containing information on many experts...

The brand choice problem in marketing has recently been addressed with methods from computational intelligence such as neural networks. Another class of methods from computational intelligence, the so-called ensemble methods such as boosting and stacking have never been applied to the brand...

In this paper we give a short novel proof of the well-known Lagrange multiplier rule, discuss the sources of the power of this rule and consider several applications of this rule. The new proof does not use the implicit function theorem and combines the advantages of two of the most well-known...

This paper builds on De Groot and Franses (2005) (Econometric Institute Report 2005-01). It modifies the EICIE, the Econometric Institute Current Indicator of the Economy, by allowing for two regimes. These regimes are marked by positive or negative annual growth in the staffing services data....

In this paper we will give an overview of the use of operations research models and methods in the design and operation of container terminals. We will describe the activities that take place at a container terminal and give an overview of the relevant decision problems, both at a strategic,...

Tests of causality in variance in multiple time series have been proposed recently, based on residuals of estimated univariate models. Although such tests are applied frequently little is known about their power properties. In this paper we show that a convenient alternative to residual based...