With the advent of improved data collection techniques, the applied econometrician can nowadays have access to very large data bases. Sometimes, however, these can have fairly low informational content. For example, a typical response rate in direct mailings is below 1%. Given the small fraction...

When customers are classified into ordered categories, which are defined from the outset, it may happen that the majority belongs to a single category. If a market researcher is interested in the correlation between the classification and individual characteristics, the natural question is...

Experts often add domain knowledge to model-based forecasts while aiming to reduce forecast errors. Indeed, there is some empirical evidence that expert-adjusted forecasts improve forecast quality. However, surprisingly little is known about what experts actually do. Based on a large and...

This paper conjectures that the behaviour of experts who adjust statistical-model-based forecasts obeys the Law of Small Numbers [LSN]. To put this hypothesis to an empirical test, I propose a simple but effective methodology. It is applied to a database containing information on many experts...

This paper builds on De Groot and Franses (2005) (Econometric Institute Report 2005-01). It modifies the EICIE, the Econometric Institute Current Indicator of the Economy, by allowing for two regimes. These regimes are marked by positive or negative annual growth in the staffing services data....

We develop a method which measures the effect of the major international conventions in the area of safety, pollution, search and rescue and work related measures. We further distinguish between the effect of entry into force and the status of ratification of a convention by its parties. We use...

Two important empirical features of monthly US unemployment are that shocks to the series seem rather persistent and that unemployment seems to rise faster in recessions than that it falls during expansions. To jointly capture these features of long memory and nonlinearity, respectively, we put...

Charitable organizations often consider direct mailings to raise donations. Obviously, it is important for a charity to make a profitable selection from available mailing lists, which can be its own list or a list obtained elsewhere. For this purpose, a charitable organization usually has to...

In this paper we propose a Bayesian analysis of seasonal unit roots in quarterly observed time series. Seasonal unit root processes are useful to describe economic series with changing seasonal fluctuations. A natural alternative model for similar purposes contains deterministic seasonal mean...

Due to high and low volatility periods, time series of absolute returns experience temporary level shifts (that is, periods with outliers) which differ in length and size. In this paper we put forward a new model which can describe and forecast the location and size of such level shifts. Our so...