We study the effects of changes in uncertainty about future fiscal policy on aggregate economic activity. Fiscal deficits and public debt have risen sharply in the wake of the financial crisis. While these developments make fiscal consolidation inevitable, there is considerable uncertainty about...

The dynamics of a linear (or linearized) dynamic stochastic economic model can be expressed in terms of matrices (A,B,C,D) that define a state space system. An associated state space system (A,K,C, Sigma) determines a vector autoregression for observables available to an econometrician. We...

Recent work by Greenwood, Hercowitz, and Krusell (1997 and 2000) and Fisher (2003) has emphasized the importance of investment-specific technological change as a main driving force behind long-run growth and the business cycle. This paper shows how the growth model with investment-specific...

This paper studies the use of a minimum wage law to implement the optimal redistribution policy when a distorting tax-transfer scheme is also available. The authors build a static general equilibrium model with a Ramsey planner making decisions on taxes, transfers, and minimum wage levels....

This paper studies the econometrics of computed dynamic models. Since these models generally lack a closed-form solution, economists approximate the policy functions of the agents in the model with numerical methods. But this implies that, instead of the exact likelihood function, the researcher...

This paper presents a framework to undertake likelihood-based inference in nonlinear dynamic equilibrium economies. The authors develop a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm that delivers an estimate of the likelihood function of the model using simulation methods. This likelihood can be used for...

This paper compares two methods for undertaking likelihood-based inference in dynamic equilibrium economies: a Sequential Monte Carlo filter proposed by Fernandez-Villaverde and Rubio-Ramirez (2004) and the Kalman filter. The Sequential Monte Carlo filter exploits the nonlinear structure of the...

This paper compares solution methods for dynamic equilibrium economies. The authors compute and simulate the stochastic neoclassical growth model with leisure choice using Undetermined Coefficients in levels and in logs, Finite Elements, Chebyshev Polynomials, Second and Fifth Order...