The paper identifies a unique dimension of currency carry trades that it is related to the intensity of technology transition across countries. Particularly, I show that technology diffusion is a fundamental determinant of currency premia and it is priced in the cross-section of currency excess...

We show that bond risk-premia rise with uncertainty about expected inflation and fall with uncertainty about expected growth; the magnitude of return predictability using these two uncertainty measures is similar to that by multiple yields. Motivated by this evidence, we develop and estimate a...

This paper studies predictability of currency returns over time and the extent to which it is captured by trading rules commonly used in currency markets. We consider the strategies that an investor endowed with rational expectations could have pursued to exploit out-of-sample currency...