This paper investigates the determinants of forecast heterogeneity in the Yen-US dollar market using a panel data set from Consensus Economics. Regardless of the particular model specification and consideration of control variables we find that exchange rate misalignments increase forecast...

This paper questions the positive relationship between HIV prevalence and income in Sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we hypothesize that a greater economic instability would reduce the incentives to engage in self-protective behaviors inducing people to increasingly take the risk of...

Sraffa (1960) introduced a classification of goods which has been used without modification for a long time. According to him goods have to be classified as basic and non-basic commodities. Among non-basic commodities, he extracts goods which are used directly and indirectly in the production of...

To better understand the relationship between different types of firm ownership and management turnover, this study classifies ownership along two dimensions: the type of owner and the concentration of ownership. Within this framework, a unique data set is used to study the impact of management...

In this paper we present compelling evidence from a detailed analysis of historical prepayment data to demonstrate that a mortgage cohort remembers the level of the previous mortgage rate troughs experienced by the cohort. This is a general property, observed ubiquitously, that inescapably leads...

To more thoroughly study the effect of ownership on management turnover, firms are classified by ownership simultaneously along two dimensions: types of owners and concentration of ownership. Under this new framework, a unique data set is used to study the sensitivity of management turnover to a...

This paper presents the interrelations between the economic and financial crisis and monetary policy. Its emphasizes three dimensions of the problem. First, monetary policy is partialy responsible of the financial and economics events of these last years. Second, strong monetary actions are...

Stock market valuation and Treasury yield determination are consistent with the Fisher effect (1896) as generalized by Darby (1975) and Feldstein (1976). The U.S. stock market (S&P 500) is priced to yield ex-ante a real after-tax return directly related to real long-term GDP/capita growth (the...

This paper considers a class of migration dynamics with forward-looking agents in a multi-country solvable variant of the core-periphery model of Krugman (Journal of Political Economy 99 (1991)). We find that, under a symmetric externality assumption, our static model admits a potential...

We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecaster build their expectations. Our findings point into the direction that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy...