The likelihood for copula modeling appears when both the data and the copula representations are seen as being driven by common uniform latent variables. This perspective facilitates Bayesian inference for prediction and copula selection.

How important to well-being is choosing a career with the right fit? We estimate a model of career choice in a setting where we observe the income risk of chosen careers and the risk aversion of the people who choose them. The key parameter of interest representing the importance of...

We develop methodology that combines statistical learning methods with generalized Markov models, thereby enhancing the former to account for time series dependence. Our methodology can accommodate very general and very long-term time dependence structures in an easily estimable and...

A major challenge for the treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is the development of therapy-resistant strains. We present a statistical model that quantifies the evolution of HIV populations when exposed to particular therapies. A hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to...

Recent research has documented a significant rise in the volatility (e.g., expected squared change) of individual incomes in the U.S. since the 1970s. Existing measures of this trend abstract from individual heterogeneity, effectively estimating an increase in average volatility. We decompose...