This paper presents a Monte-Carlo study on the practical reliability of numerical algorithms for FIML-estimation in nonlinear econometric models. The performance of different techniques of Hessian approximation in trust-region algorithms is compared regarding their "robustness" against "bad"...

With most of the available software packages, estimates of the parameter covariance matrix in a GARCH model are usually obtained from the outer products of the first derivatives of the log-likelihoods (BHHH estimator). However, other estimators could be defined and used, analogous to the...

Five alternative techniques have been applied to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the forecasts produced by a macro-model of the French economy, the Mini-DMS developed at INSEE. They are bootstrap, analytic simulation on coefficients, Monte Carlo on coefficients, parametric...

For a nonlinear system of simultaneous equations, the mode of the joint distribution of the endogenous variables in the forecast period is proposed as alternative to the more usual deterministic or mean predictors. A first method follows from maximizing the joint density of a subset of the...

The drawbacks of predictors obtained with the usual deterministic solution methods in nonlinear systems of stochastic equations have been widely investigated in the literature. Most of the proposed therapies are based on some estimation of the conditional mean of the endogenous variables in the...

This paper shows how to compute asymptotic standard errors of the characteristic roots of a nonlinear econometric model. The system of simultaneous equations is linearized in the neighborhood of a given point, then characteristic roots and related standard errors are computed.

The drawbacks of forecasts obtained with the usual deterministic solution methods in nonlinear systems of stochastic equations have been widely investigated in the literature. Most of the proposed therapies are based on some estimation of the conditional mean of the endogenous variables in the...

In econometric models, estimates of the asymptotic covariance matrix of FIML coefficients are traditionally computed in several different ways: with a generalized least squares type matrix; using the Hessian of the concentrated log-likelihood; using the outer product of the first derivatives of...

A method for evaluating the reliability of policy recommendations derived from a linear dynamic structural econometric model in the framework of the linear quadratic control problem has been recently proposed by Friedmann (1980, 1981). The method analytically derives the asymptotic distribution...

Problems related to deterministic solution of nonlinear econometric models are well known in the literature. The use of mean (average) stochastic simulation results has been usually proposed to solve the problem of bias. This raises however other types of problems, like possible non-coherent...