A general method is formalised for the problem of making predictions for a fixed group of individual units, following a sequence of repeated measures on each. A review of some related work is undertaken and, using some of its terminology, the approach might be described as approximate...

Models of consumer behaviour that are based purely on empirical relationships in data can perform well in the short term but often degrade rapidly with changing circumstances. Superior longer-term performance can sometimes be attained by developing models for the deeper processes underlying the...

When proposed new fraud detection systems are tested in revolving credit operations, a straightforward comparison of the observed fraud detection rates is subject to a selectivity bias that tends to favour the existing system. This bias arises from the fact that accounts are terminated when the...