Economic activity appears to be recovering, underpinned by a strong policy response. Fiscal consolidation will be crucial to maintain debt sustainability and support the envisaged external adjustment over the medium term. Sound monetary and exchange rate policies are essential to maintain...

This 2010 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic outcomes have weakened significantly for St. Lucia. Real GDP is estimated to have contracted by 5.2 percent in 2009, reflecting a sharp decline in visitor arrivals and construction activity related to foreign direct investment. For...

The completion of the Second Review Under the Poverty Reduction Growth Facility Arrangement was delayed to address important governance and transparency concerns. Macroeconomic performance was strong in the year 2005. Policy discussions focused on improving macroeconomic management against the...

“Program numbers” from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of...

We examine the determinants of external crises, focusing on the role of foreign liabilities and their composition. Using a variety of statistical tools and comprehensive data spanning 1970-2011, we find that the ratio of net foreign liabilities (NFL) to GDP is a significant crisis predictor, and...

Could a high-access, quick-disbursing "insurance facility" in the IMF help to reduce the incidence of sharp interruptions in capital flows ("sudden stops")? We contribute to the debate around this question by analyzing the impact of conventional IMF-supported programs on the incidence of sudden...

The economic and financial crisis is affecting the fiscal accounts of virtually every country. Public sector support for the financial system, fiscal stimulus and the automatic stabilizers, as well as the revenue decline from the downturn in commodity and asset prices, are leading to sharp...

This paper evaluates the 2003 Article IV Consultation and a Request for a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYRM). The Article IV policy discussions focused on regaining a sustainable fiscal and external position, restarting economic growth and job...

This paper examines Zambia’s 2003 Article IV Consultation and Ex Post Assessment of Performance Under IMF-Supported Programs. Zambia’s economic performance has improved significantly in the last four years. After more than two decades of economic decline and inflation averaging...