Unlike conventional fiscal sustainability assessments, the Value-at-Risk approach developed in this paper explicitly captures the contribution of key risk variables to public sector vulnerability. In an illustrative application to Ecuador, the VaR approach confirms a significant risk of...

Which structural reforms affect the speed the regional convergence within a country? We found that domestic financial development, trade/current account openness, better institutional infrastructure, and selected labor market reforms facilitate regional convergence. However, these reforms have...

Market makers learn about asset values as they set intraday prices and absorb portfolio flows. Absorbing these flows causes inventory imbalances. Previous work has argued that market makers change prices to manage incoming flows and offset inventory imbalances. This study argues that they have...

Although Turkey’s economic performance has been strong, growing external imbalances exposed the country to a reversal of sentiment. In the wake of recent market turbulence, the authorities have recommitted to strong policies and stepped up program implementation. The authorities’...

Turkey’s Fifth Review and Inflation Consultation under the Stand-By Arrangement and a Request for Waiver of Nonobservance and Applicability of Performance Criteria are discussed. Despite sharply higher interest rates, a weaker lira, and lower asset prices, economic activity has remained...

This paper proposes a new effect of firing costs on firms' behavior that builds from firms' demand for liquidity. When a time gap exists between production and its associated revenues, firing can become a liquidity adjustment tool that allows firms to increase their short-term liquidity. I refer...

This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign...

This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that real GDP growth in Nigeria accelerated in 2003 on account of sharply higher oil and gas production and continued robust growth in the non-oil economy. Owing to favorable terms-of-trade developments, the external current account deficit narrowed...

We revisit the dramatic failure of monetary models in explaining exchange rate movements. Using the information content from 98 countries, we find strong evidence for cointegration between nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals. We also find fundamentalsbased models very successful in...