This paper formulates a novel modeling framework that delivers: (a) forecasts of indicators of systemic real risk and systemic financial risk based on density forecasts of indicators of real activity and financial health; (b) stress-tests as measures of the dynamics of responses of systemic risk...

In 2007, countries in the Euro periphery were enjoying stable growth, low deficits, and low spreads. Then the financial crisis erupted and pushed them into deep recessions, raising their deficits and debt levels. By 2010, they were facing severe debt problems. Spreads increased and,...

The performance of the Gambian economy has been strong in recent years. The authorities noted that in addition to providing financial resources, the program has helped to restore compliance with the rules on government borrowing from the Central Bank of The Gambia (CBG) following securitization...

This paper focuses on Central African Republic’s (CAR) completion point under the Enhanced Initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) and debt relief under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI). In the view of International Development Association (IDA) and IMF staff,...

The assessment shows that despite challenging circumstances, Comoros has made progress on political and economic reforms under IMF-supported programs. Comorian authorities implemented a program for maintaining macroeconomic stability, reducing poverty, improving public financial management,...

This paper presents the primary institutions and economic policies that have led to Chile’s remarkable record of stability and growth over the past twenty years. The core of this policy stance is the combination of fiscal discipline and an open trade policy regime, together with carefully...

Iceland has made considerable progress under an economic program supported by the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). Successful implementation of fiscal adjustment, effective use of capital controls, and financial sector restructuring have underpinned the recovery. Executive Directors emphasized that...

The main challenges for this review were to further redress long-running problems in the energy sector and to balance fiscal policy requirements for development spending with macroeconomic stability. The financial position of the state-owned electricity company (KESH) deteriorated significantly...

This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that over the last decade, Albania’s macroeconomic performance has generally been strong and per capita GDP in U.S. dollar terms more than doubled. Strong fiscal policy, largely based on major improvements in tax administration, lowered public...

Albania’s macroeconomic performance over the past year has been good, with strong growth and a significant reduction in poverty under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility Arrangement. Executive Directors commended the new strategy for maintaining the macroeconomic stability,...