Tonga’s economy has become increasingly vulnerable. Fiscal discipline has weakened, undermining macroeconomic stability and external viability. Medium-term prospects have deteriorated. Moreover, there are other serious downside risks to the fiscal outlook. Further monetary tightening in...

Using realized volatility to estimate conditional variance of financial returns, we compare forecasts of volatility from linear GARCH models with asymmetric ones. We consider horizons extending to 30 days. Forecasts are compared using three different evaluation tests. With data from an equity...

In this study, owing to the global financial crisis, a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for the Dominican Republic was approved. The aim is to limit the procyclical policies in the short-term and discussions focused on policies necessary to ensure that the end-2011 and 2011 targets are observed....

The paper analyzes Jamaica's experience of low growth despite consistently high investment. Cross-country analysis provides evidence of a significant and negative relationship between total public debt and productivity growth. Looking at the specific channels through which high debt affects...

This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic imbalances in Serbia and Montenegro widened in 2004, putting at risk some of the impressive earlier achievements. Growth, about 5 percent in nonagriculture since 2002, has been fueled by a surge in domestic demand. Lack of...

This paper focuses on Peru’s Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). Progress was made on structural reforms, but key reforms remain to be implemented, including the completion of tax reform and implementation of a fiscally neutral decentralization. Both are crucial to fiscal...

This 2004 Article IV Consultation for Panama reports that the medium-term outlook is encouraging, assuming implementation of the authorities’ fiscal program, which should put the public debt ratio on a steadily declining path. The banking system experienced a substantial recovery in...

How do firm-specific actions-in particular, innovation-affect firm productivity? And what is the role of the financial sector in facilitating higher productivity? Using a rich firm-level dataset, we find that innovation is crucial for firm performance as it directly and measurably increases...

This paper examines the completion point document for Senegal’s Enhanced Initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries. Senegal could reach the completion point on the basis of a full poverty reduction strategy and sound macroeconomic policies, as well as specific structural and social...

This paper characterizes the term structure of Treasury bond yields for Brazil, and estimates a Nelson-Siegel Model to reproduce its stylized facts for the period 2004-2010. For this purpose, this paper uses a software developed by Fund staff. In addition, the paper estimates two versions of the...