This paper explores the relationship between the degree of division or fractionalization of a country’s population (along ethnolinguistic and religious dimensions) and both political instability and government consumption, using a neoclassical growth model. The principal idea is that greater...

This paper reviews the request from the São Tomé and Príncipe authorities for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). In 2004, the economy continued to grow at a moderate pace, but inflation increased to 15 percent by year-end, as bank credit to the...

The paper reviews the principles and practical considerations involved in the choice between foreign and domestic financing of fiscal deficits, and derives a series of recommendations broadly applicable to Central and West African countries. The paper develops a simple analytical framework and...

Crude oil prices have been on a run-up spree in recent years. Their dynamics were characterized by high volatility, high intensity jumps, and strong upward drift, indicating that oil markets were constantly out-of-equilibrium. An explanation of the oil price process in terms of the underlying...

Assessments regarding the effectiveness of sovereign debt restructurings are often summarized by comparisons of the net present value of debt service before and after the restructuring. These calculations are inherently sensitive to the choice of discount rate. This paper explores issues that...

This Selected Issues paper on the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) underlies key features of business cycles. To obtain new measures of classical and growth cycles, simple rules were applied to date turning points in the classical business cycle, and a recently developed frequency domain...

Afghanistan has made substantial progress toward macroeconomic stability, but structural reforms need to be accelerated. The uncertainty affecting the fiscal outlook warrants a prudent expenditure policy. Monetary policy has been instrumental in reducing inflation and safeguarding external...

This 2006 Article IV Consultation highlights that Mongolia’s macroeconomic performance in 2005–06 has been robust, underpinned by a run-up on copper and gold prices, declining inflation, and budget and external current account surpluses. Real GDP growth in 2005–06 is...

Kenya showed poor implementation of policies and weak economic performance under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) arrangement. The government formulated a new Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation (ERSWEC) aimed to address major macroeconomic...