This paper reviews the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) for the Union of the Comoros. The authorities’ program for 2005 is focused on macroeconomic stabilization. This is predicated on a consolidated budget entailing a domestic fiscal adjustment slightly above 3 percent of GDP. Monetary...

After a period of economic slowdown, the outlook for Sierra Leone appears more favorable. Development priorities and their financing while maintaining a competitive economy and a sustainable debt outlook will help. Structural reforms will focus on improving tax administration, strengthening...

The Côte d’Ivoire government is working to reform the security apparatus. Containing fiscal risks, strengthening revenue collection, improving public financial management, and creating a business-friendly environment, through regularization of arrears on domestic debt, are the focus of the...

This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that Morocco’s macroeconomic conditions remained strong in 2003. Growth increased to 5.5 percent because of an exceptionally good cereal production, while non-agricultural growth showed signs of revival. Inflation was below 2 percent and the...

If permanent output is uncertain, tax smoothing can be perilous: both debt levels and tax rates are difficult to stabilize and may drift upwards. One practical remedy would be to target the debt. However, our simulations confirm that such a policy would require undesirably volatile fiscal...

This paper examines the empirical behavior of conventional bank deposit rates and the rate of return on retail Islamic profit-and-loss sharing (PLS) investment accounts in Malaysia and Turkey, using monthly data from January 1997 to August 2010. The analysis shows that conventional bank deposit...

This paper proposes a set of fiscal indicators to assess rollover risks using the conceptual framework developed by Cottarelli (2011). These indicators provide early warning signals about the manifestation of these risks, giving policymakers the opportunity to adjust policies before extreme...

We look into Brazil's public sector accounts during the two administrations of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso: 1995-98 and 1998-2002. We underline the fact that the authorities' attitude was as important as the pace of the structural reforms for understanding the dynamics of the public...

The staff report for the First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Requests for Waiver of Performance Criterion and Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criterion highlights Peru’s policy discussions and staff appraisal. A draft law was prepared with a view to establishing...

A stochastic debt forecasting framework is presented where projected debt distributions reflect both the joint realization of the fiscal policy reaction to contemporaneous stochastic macroeconomic projections, and also the second-round effects of fiscal policy on macroeconomic projections. The...