This paper examines whether deviations from PPP are stationary in the presence of nonlinearity, and whether the adjustment toward PPP is symmetric from above and below. Using alternative nonlinear models, our results support mean reversion and asymmetric adjustment dynamics. We find differences...

We survey quantitative fiscal conditionality in selected sub-Saharan African PRGFsupported programs, and assess the conditionality against some possible benchmarks and best practices. While noting many caveats, the paper suggests some possible scope for further attuning of this conditionality to...

We propose a model of the interbank money market with an explicit role for central bank intervention and periodic reserve requirements, and study the interaction of profit-maximizing banks with a central bank targeting interest rates at high frequency. The model yields predictions on biweekly...

Trinidad and Tobago has enjoyed positive growth, low inflation, and a steady decline in unemployment, but challenges remain. Executive Directors commended the prudent management, and stressed the need for a macroeconomic framework underpinned by a three-year rolling budget and pension reform....

This paper proposes a framework for assessing fiscal sustainability in heavily indebted countries dependent on exhaustible resources, with reference to Gabon. It finds that fiscal sustainability could be achieved by: (i) developing a fiscal rule for the non-oil primary fiscal balance compatible...

This paper analyzes the sources of Mexico's economic growth since the 1960s and compares various decompositions of historical growth into its trend and cyclical components. The role of the implied output gaps in the inflationary process is then assessed. Looking ahead, the paper presents...

During 2001-07, increases in mature market volatility were associated with declines in forex returns for East Asian countries, consistent with an overall "flight to safety" effect. Estimates from GARCH models suggest that a 5 percentage point increase in mature market equity volatility generated...

This paper develops a small open economy model where entrepreneurs partially finance investment using foreign currency denominated debt subject to a risk premium above and beyond international interest rates. We use Bayesian estimation techniques to evaluate the importance of balance sheet...

The ongoing financial turmoil has triggered a lively debate on ways of containing systemic risk and lessening the likelihood of boom-and-bust episodes in credit markets. Particularly, it has been argued that banking regulation might attenuate procyclicality in lending standards by affecting the...