Mali’s 2008 Article IV Consultation and request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility are discussed. Mali’s economy has doubled in size since the democratic transition of the early 1990s. Sound macroeconomic management has produced growth...

With the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) completion, Congo’s prospects for achieving sustained growth and poverty reduction have improved. The HIPC completion reduced debt service obligations and increased the resilience of external debt indicators to shocks. Non-oil revenue is...

Economic performance in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has improved markedly. To safeguard the fiscal position, the government has to rigorously monitor budget execution and reduce nondiscretionary spending. The current monetary and floating exchange rate regime should be maintained....

This paper discusses key findings of the Fifth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) for Niger. Growth prospects for 2007 are favorable, particularly because of strong agricultural production and buoyant investments. Inflation remains low. Growth prospects for the medium...

The staff report for the 2007 Article IV Consultation on Angola highlights economic performance, macroeconomic stability, and fiscal policy. Growth in the medium term will rely increasingly on the non-oil sector, where reforms to promote private sector development will be critical to offset a...

Costa Rica’s economy has been hit hard by the global crisis, but active policies have helped preserve stability and mitigate the negative impact on growth. This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that despite the worsening of economic activity, the banking sector has remained sound....

The economy of Jordan was affected by the global crisis. Lower commodity prices helped improve Jordan’s external position. Effective banking supervision has strengthened the capacity of Jordanian banks to withstand shocks. The authorities have implemented prudent fiscal and monetary...

This paper proposes a new framework for the analysis of public sector debt sustainability. The framework uses concepts and methods from modern practice of contingent claims to develop a quantitative risk-based model of sovereign credit risk. The motivation in developing this framework is to...

This paper outlines a simple approach for incorporating extraneous predictions into structural models. The method allows the forecaster to combine predictions derived from any source in a way that is consistent with the underlying structure of the model. The method is flexible enough that...

The aim of this paper is to assess the short- and medium-term impact of debt crises on GDP. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1970 to 2008, the paper shows that debt crises produce significant and long-lasting output losses, reducing output by about 10 percent after eight years....