Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) provides a coherent mechanism to address the problem of model uncertainty. In this paper we extend the BMA framework to panel data models where the lagged dependent variable as well as endogenous variables appear as regressors. We propose a Limited Information...

This paper develops the theoretical background for the Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging (LIBMA). The proposed approach accounts for model uncertainty by averaging over all possible combinations of predictors when making inferences about the variables of interest, and it...

This Ex Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement for the Kyrgyz Republic explains macroeconomic and structural performance. External debt service claimed a steadily increasing share of fiscal revenues, but a strengthened commitment to prudent fiscal policies and improved policy capacity...

This paper reviews the international business cycle among Group of Seven (G-7) countries since 1973 from two angles. An examination of business cycle synchronization among these countries using simple descriptive statistics shows that synchronized slowdowns have been the norm rather than the...

Sound policies and favorable external conditions have led to a strong economic recovery, but important challenges lie ahead. Uruguay’s near-term economic prospects are generally favorable. The main short-term challenge is rising inflation in the wake of vigorous growth and capital...

The staff report for the fourth review under the three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, request for a waiver and modification of performance criteria, prepared by a staff team of the IMF, following discussions that ended on September 25, 2012, with the officials of Kenya on...

This paper describes Kenya’s third review under the three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and request for modification of performance criteria. The Executive Board approved a three-year ECF arrangement for Kenya on January 31, 2011, which has been augmented on...

Social and political stability has improved in Congo, but the security situation is fragile. Executive Directors welcomed the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP), which was designed to safeguard fiscal and external stability. They stressed the need for stabilizing the economy and pursuing structural...

This paper presents key findings of the Second and Third Reviews for Gabon under the Stand-By Arrangement. Performance under the program has been mixed. Non-oil economic growth was robust prior to the onset of the international financial crisis, spurred by high oil and commodity prices. However,...

This paper discusses key findings of the Sixth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) for Tanzania. Economic growth, inflation, and the external position have evolved in a manner consistent with program objectives, and the program has...