In this paper, we develop a new optimization model for capital rationing with uncertain project returns. Our model maximizes the probability of meeting a pre-defined target return by selecting a feasible set of projects subject to budget constraints in multiple time periods. We employ a...

We examine the predictive power of the CDS-bond basis for future corporate bond returns. We find that residual basis, the part of the CDS-bond basis that cannot be explained by a wide range of market frictions such as counterparty risk, funding risk, and liquidity risk, strongly negatively...

We study the time-varying nature of US monetary policies summarized by the Taylor rule based on a continuous-time regime-switching term structure model. In this model, the spot rate follows the Taylor rule and government bonds at different maturities are priced by no-arbitrage. We allow the...

Based on a multivariate extension of the constrained locally polynomial estimator of Aït-Sahalia and Duarte (2003), we provide one of the first nonparametric estimates of probability densities of LIBOR rates under forward martingale measures and state-price densities (SPDs) implicit in interest...

We propose two nonparametric specification tests for continuous-time models based on transition density, which unlike the marginal density used in the literature, can capture the full dynamics of a continuous-time process. To improve the finite sample performance of nonparametric methods, we...

We characterize the dynamics of the U.S. short-term interest rate using a Markov regime switching model. Using a test developed by Garcia (1998), we show that there are two regimes in the data: In one regime, the short rate behaves like a random walk with low volatility; in another regime, it...

We have developed Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for inferences of continuous-time models with stochastic volatility and infinite-activity Leacute;vy jumps using discretely sampled data. Simulation studies show that (i) our methods provide accurate joint identification of...

We develop a systematic approach for evaluating asset pricing models based on the second Hansen-Jagannathan distance (HJD), which requires a good asset pricing model to not only have small pricing errors but also be arbitrage free. Our approach includes a specification test and a sequence of...

Using a large sample of hedge fund manager characteristics, we provide one of the first comprehensive studies on the impact of manager characteristics, such as education and career concern, on hedge fund performances. We document differential ability among hedge fund managers in generating...