This study documents strong mean aversion in U.S. fixed income returns (but not stock returns) at 5-20 year horizons. These results are only slightly weaker for nominal returns than for real returns and prevail regardless of the period examined (1926-2011, 1951-2011, 1857-1925 or 1857-2011). I...

In this paper, we demonstrate that the conflicting results found in the literature of tests of the unbiased forward rate hypothesis (UFRH) depend upon the econometric specification used as well as differences in the time period of estimation. It is established that the time series properties of...