This paper analyzes the interaction of storage and futures trading when producers make decisions covering many harvests. In this more general context, by examining how risks are distributed between storers and growers, results are obtained that differ dramatically from previous models in the...

This paper models how imperfect memory affects the optimal continuity of policies. We examine the choices of a player (individual or firm) who observes previous actions but cannot remember the rationale for these actions. In a stable environment, the player optimally responds to memory loss with...

This paper provides a model for valuing stocks that takes into account the stochastic processes for earnings and interest rates. Our analysis differs from past research of this type in being applicable to stocks that have a positive probability of zero or negative earnings. By avoiding the...

This paper examines the effect of memory loss on the continuity of behavior. We consider a player (individual or firm) who remembers previous actions but not underlying rationales. In a stable environment, relative to a full-recall scenario, memory loss increases the probability of following old...

The basic paradigm of asset pricing is in vibrant flux. The purely rational approach is being subsumed by a broader approach based upon the psychology of investors. In this approach, security expected returns are determined by both "risk" and "misvaluation". This survey sketches a framework for...

We propose a theory of securities market under- and overreactions based on two well-known psychological biases: investor overconfidence about the precision of private information; and biased self-attribution, which causes asymmetric shifts in investors' confidence as a function of their...

This paper offers a multisecurity model in which prices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firms' prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade to profit from mispricing. We derive a pricing relationship in which expected returns are linearly related to both risk and mispricing...

This paper examines equilibrium in a spot and futures market with both primary producers (growers) and intermediate producers (processo rs). For a commodity that is subject to output shocks, processors tend to hedge long, in contrast with J. R. Hicks's theory of futures hedging. Nevertheless, if...