In the late 1990s, Morris and Shin proposed a new theoretical framework of financial crises, which generalised traditional models of strategic complementarity and self-fulfilling beliefs by incorporating idiosyncratic uncertainty about the state. The innovative feature of their framework is...

In order to analyze the pricing of portfolio credit risk – as revealed by tranche spreads of a popular credit default swap (CDS) index – we extract risk-neutral probabilities of default (PDs) and physical asset return correlations from single-name CDS spreads. The time profile and overall...

Standalone ratings measure a bank's intrinsic financial strength but – unlike all-in ratings – do not incorporate potential sovereign or parent-bank support. On July 20, 2011, Fitch switched from a 9-point to a 21-point scale for their standalone ratings but did not alter their all-in...

The financial sector has a key role to play in supporting the green transition. It is unrealistic to expect financial markets to induce the green transition unless the right signals come from the real economy. Unrealistic expectations can set the financial sector up for failure and derail the...

The first, the allocation channel, operates through the constraints and incentives of financial institutions. By employing regulatory tools that affect the cost-benefit trade-offs of financial decisions, the authority would incentivise financial institutions to reallocate their resources across...

Is systematic monetary policy a driver of the forward premium puzzle, i.e. the tendency of high interest-rate currencies to appreciate, thus strongly violating Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP)? We address this question by studying a battery of monetary policy rules in a small open economy that is...

Why should risk management systems account for parameter uncertainty? In order to answer this question, this paper lets an investor in a credit portfolio face non-diversifiable estimation-driven uncertainty about two parameters: probability of default and asset-return correlation. Bayesian...