Prudential tools that target financial stability need to be calibrated at the level of the financial system but implemented at the level of each regulated institution. They require a methodology for the allocation of system-wide risk to the individual institution in line with its systemic...

This article compares the linkages between credit fundamentals, ratings and value-at-risk measures for CDO tranches with those for corporate bond exposures. A sensitivity analysis incorporating market information and rating migrations data reveals that the behaviour of CDO tranche ratings can...

The empirical methodology of the paper establishes if a speculative attack, which is accounted for via sunspots in the presence of multiple equilibria, could have been in fact driven uniquely by economic fundamentals. The methodology is based on the theoretical models of Bertola and Svensson...

This paper reviews post-crisis financial regulatory reforms, examines how they fit together and identifies open issues. Specifically, it takes stock of the salient new features of bank and CCP international standards within a unified analytical framework. The key notion in this framework is...

Equity and credit-default-swap (CDS) markets are in disagreement as to the extent to which asset returns co-move across firms. This suggests market segmentation and casts ambiguity about the asset-return correlations underpinning observed prices of portfolio credit risk. The ambiguity could be...

This paper evaluates empirically the performance of six structural credit risk models by comparing the probabilities of default (PDs) they deliver to ex post default rates. In contrast to previous studies pursuing similar objectives, the paper employs firm-level data and finds that theory-based...

Why should risk management systems account for parameter uncertainty? In order to answer this question, this paper lets an investor in a credit portfolio face non-diversifiable estimation-driven uncertainty about two parameters: probability of default and asset-return correlation. Bayesian...

In order to analyze the pricing of portfolio credit risk - as revealed by tranche spreads of a popular credit default swap (CDS) index - we extract risk-neutral probabilities of default (PDs) and physical asset return correlations from single-name CDS spreads. The time profile and overall level...