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The effect of question wording on reported expectations and perceptions of inflation
Bruin, Wändi Bruine de; Klaauw, Wilbert van der; … - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2010
inflation. The Michigan Survey of Consumers uses questions about "prices in general" to measure expected and perceived inflation … specific prices when being asked about "prices in general." Here, we randomly assigned respondents to questions about "prices … and more dispersed for "prices in general" than for "the rate of inflation," with "prices you pay" and "prices in general …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008475905
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Inflation expectations and behavior: Do survey respondents act on their beliefs?
Armantier, Olivier; Bruin, Wändi Bruine de; Topa, Giorgio - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2011
We compare the inflation expectations reported by consumers in a survey with their behavior in a financially incentivized investment experiment designed such that future inflation affects payoffs. The inflation expectations survey is found to be informative in the sense that the beliefs reported...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009274483
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Improving the measurement of inflation expectations
Potter, Simon M. - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2012
Remarks at the Barclays 16th Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference, New York City.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010725025
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The price is right: updating of inflation expectations in a randomized price information experiment
Armantier, Olivier; Nelson, Scott; Topa, Giorgio; … - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2012
Understanding the formation of consumer inflation expectations is considered crucial for managing monetary policy. This paper investigates how consumers form and update their inflation expectations using a unique “information” experiment embedded in a survey. We first elicit respondents’...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011027224
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Heterogeneous inflation expectations, learning, and market outcomes
Madeira, Carlos; Zafar, Basit - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2012
Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we show that individuals, in particular women and ethnic minorities, are highly heterogeneous in their expectations of inflation. We estimate a model of inflation expectations based on learning from experience that also allows for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010551307
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Improving the measurement of inflation expectations
Potter, Simon M. - In: Speech (2012) June 7
Remarks at the Barclays 16th Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference, New York City.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010552100
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Measuring consumer uncertainty about future inflation
Bruin, Wandi Bruine de; Manski, Charles F.; Topa, Giorgio; … - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2009
Survey measures of consumer inflation expectations have an important shortcoming in that, while providing useful summary measures of the distribution of point forecasts across individuals, they contain no direct information about an individual's uncertainty about future inflation. The latter is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008636162
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Why are central banks pursuing long-run price stability? (commentary)
Summers, Lawrence - In: Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole (1996), pp. 35-43
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005419802
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Indicators of the general price level and inflation
Becsi, Zsolt - In: Economic and Financial Policy Review (1994) Q IV, pp. 27-39
This article examines whether price indexes, such as the CPI, the PPI, and the implicit price deflator for GDP (PGDP), tell a consistent story about the general price level and inflation rate. To this end, Zsolt Becsi analyzes the time series properties of these indexes. He finds that the PGDP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005420149
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The commodity-consumer price connection: fact or fable?
Blomberg, S. Brock; Harris, Ethan S. - In: Economic Policy Review (1995) Oct, pp. 21-38
The recent surge in commodity prices has rekindled interest in their power to predict consumer price inflation. But is … this interest warranted? In examining the empirical relationship between commodity prices and consumer price inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008621666