Using affine term structure models with latent and observable factors, we study the interaction between macro variables and the Brazilian yield curve contained in a daily dataset. Two versions of the model are tested, one in continuous time and estimated using maximum likelihood with Chen-Scott...

In this work we compare the interest rate forecasting performance of a broad class of linear models. The models are estimated through a MCMC procedure with data from the US and Brazilian markets. We show that a simple parametric specification has the best predictive power, but it does not...

The objective of our work is to study the term structure of interest rates and the sovereign credit spreads of emerging markets. We develop a model from term structure, credit risk and vector autoregressive models, based on the articles by Ang and Piazzesi (2003) and Ang, Dong and Piazzesi...

Fundamental education is mainly provided by municipalities according to a decentralized model in which local management transforms resources transferred by the federal government into educational results that are centrally monitored. This mode of operation is conducive to the evaluation of...

We propose a management tool to identify groups of public schools that have similar standards of performance and therefore need similar support and guidance.The student's result is measured with the "Prova Brasil" (PB) for mathematics and for Portuguese language, and with an indicator of the...

Based on three versions of a small macroeconomic model for Brazil, this paper presents empirical evidence on the effects of parameter uncertainty on monetary policy rules and on the robustness of optimal and simple rules over different model specifications. By comparing the optimal policy rule...

Using an empirical age-period-cohort model we analyze the effects of different Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) public pension systems on financial imbalance, on inequality in permanent income, and on the rate of return of social security assets of heterogeneous agents in terms of gender and education....

We offer a decomposition for the variance of the current unemployment rate that not only measures the contributions of labor market flows but also of the approximation error embedded in other decompositions that use surrogates for the current rate. Using data for the United States and Brazil,...