This paper proposes an automatic procedure to identify Threshold Autoregressive models and specify the threshold values. The proposed procedure is based on recursive estimation of arranged autoregression. The main advantage of the proposed procedure over its competitors is that the threshold...

This article introduces two new types of prediction errors in time series: the filtered prediction errors and the deletion prediction errors. These two prediction errors are obtained in the same sample used for estimation, but in such a way that they share some common properties with out of...

This paper proposes an automatic procedure to identify threshold autoregressive models and specify the values of thresholds. The proposed procedure is based on the time-varying estimation of the parameters using an arranged autoregression. The proposed method not only allows for the automatic...

This article proposes an adaptive forgetting factor for the recursive estimation of time varying models.The proposed procedure is based on the Cook's distance of the new observation.It is proven that the proposed procedure encompasses the adaptive features of classic adaptive forgetting factors...

This paper describes a methodology for the simulation of multivariate out of control situations using in-control data. The method is based on finding the independent factors of the variability of the process, and shifting these factors one by one. These shifts are then translated in terms of the...

It is known that time-weighted charts like EWMA or CUSUM are designed to be optimal to detect a specific shift. If they are designed to detect, for instance, a very small shift, they can be inefficient to detect moderate or large shifts. In the literature, several alternatives have been proposed...

The motivation for this paper arises from an article written by Peña et al. [40] in 2010,where they propose the eigenvectors associated with the extreme values of a kurtosismatrix as interesting directions to reveal the possible cluster structure of a dataset. In recent years many research...

In this paper we explore, analyse and apply the change-points detection and location procedures to conditional heteroskedastic processes. We focus on processes that have constant conditional mean, but present a dynamic behavior in the conditional variance and which can also be affected by...

This paper looks at projections for the Spanish population by sex and age for the period of 2005 to 2050. These were carried out using forecasts for birth and mortality rates, and migration. These rates are calculated using two main sources of information. First, a multivariate time series model...