We present a cointegration analysis on the triangle (USD-DEM, USD-JPY, DEM-JPY) of foreign exchange rates using intra-day data. A vector autoregressive model is estimated and evaluated in terms of out-of-sample forecast accuracy measures. Its economic value is measured on the basis of trading...

Readily available information about the current term structure of interest rates, its level and recent trends in important countries has become a standard tool of monetary policy analysis. Interest rate curves can be used for inflation and output forecasts, they may give useful indications about...

Many numerical optimization methods use scenario trees as a discrete approximation for the true (multi-dimensional) probability distributions of the problem's random variables. Realistic specifications in financial optimization models can lead to tree sizes that quickly become computationally...

Readily available information about the current term structure of interest rates, its level and recent trends in important countries has become a standard tool of monetary policy analysis. Interest rate curves can be used for inflation and output forecasts, they may give useful indications about...

We derive no-arbitrage bounds for expected excess returns to generate scenarios used in financial applications. The bounds allow to distinguish three regions: one where arbitrage opportunities will never exist, a second where arbitrage may be present, and a third, where arbitrage opportunities...