The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient...

The study at hand deals with the expectations of professional analysts and novices in the context of foreign exchange markets. We analyze the respective forecasting accuracy and our results indicate that there exist substantial differences between professional forecasts and judgmental forecasts...

Die Berücksichtigung der zukünftigen Entwicklung des Wechselkurses ist sowohl für internationale Unternehmen als auch für international tätige Investoren unabdingbar. Allerdings ist die Erstellung von Wechsel- kursprognosen schwierig, da bis zum heutigen Zeitpunkt kein allgemein anerkanntes...

Sterilized foreign exchange market interventions are commonly dismissed by economists as an ineffective policy instrument. Nevertheless many central banks operating under independently floating exchange rates regimes are often engaged in sales and purchases of foreign exchange in order to...

It is often said that after the crisis economic textbooks have to be rewritten. However, as surveys show, almost all professors continue using the standard IS-LM/AS-AD model as the workhorse for undergraduate training. This paper shows that the IS-LM/AS-AD model is not only full of obvious...

Over the last decade a new consensus model has emerged in monetary macroeconomics, labelled New Keynesian macroeconomics (Clarida et al., 1999). It consists of three simple building blocs: a forward-looking IS-equation that is derived from the optimization problem of a representative household,...

We develop an institutional framework for central banks that try to pursue a stability-oriented monetary policy with the strategy of exchange rate targeting. Recent experience shows that a crucial element of this approach is to avoid destabilising capital inflows. Policy makers can exert...

Although there seems to be a broad consensus among economists that purely floating or completely fixed exchange rates (the so-called corner solutions) are the only viable alternatives of exchange rate management, many countries do not behave according to this paradigm and adopt a strategy within...

We develop an institutional framework for central banks that try to pursue a stability-oriented monetary policy in open-economies by directly targeting the exchange rate. Our main intention is to design a framework which avoids excessive capital inflows that can be regarded as a main cause of...

In this paper we carry over a static version of a New Keynesian Macro Model developed in previous papers (see Bofinger, Mayer, and Wollmershäuser 2002) to a monetary union. For a similar approach see (Uhlig 2002). We will show in particular that a harmonious functioning of a monetary union...