This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two … turning points in the inflation cycle ex post and perform well in a simulated real-time exercise over the period from 2010 to …

We propose an alternative explanation for the nature, sources and consequences of inflation rate differentials in a … inflation differentials and offer an interpretation of the nature of this interaction. We demonstrate that divergent inflation … the supply-side of the economy. Second, we show how such divergence of individual country's inflation rates may arise when …