Using a unique data set of individual professional forecasts, we document disagreement about the future path of monetary policy, particularly at longer horizons. The stark differences in short rate forecasts imply strong disagreement about the risk-return trade-off of longer-term bonds....

Cryptocurrency prices fluctuate strongly despite the fact that their supply typically follows mechanical rules. In this paper we focus on two determinants of Bitcoin valuations. Using an agnostic narrative approach to identify exogenous events related to Bitcoin mining (mining shocks) and news...

We show how to price the time series and cross-section of the term structure of interest rates using a three-step linear regression approach. Our method allows computationally fast estimation of term structure models with a large number of pricing factors. We present specification tests favoring...

Dynamic factors summarize the information in a large number of variables and are therefore intuitively appealing proxies for the information set available to investors. This paper demonstrates that conditioning on dynamic factors instead of commonly used instruments substantially reduces the...

We document a sizable OTC discount in the interdealer market for German sovereign bonds where exchange and over-the-counter trading coexist: the vast majority of OTC prices are favorable compared to exchange quotes. This is a challenge for theories of OTC markets centered around...

We document a sizable OTC discount in the interdealer market for German sovereign bonds where exchange and over-the-counter trading coexist: the vast majority of OTC prices are favorable with respect to exchange quotes. This is a challenge for theories of OTC markets centered around search...

We study price dispersion and venue choice in the interdealer market for German sovereign bonds, where an exchange and over-the-counter segments coexist. We show that 85% of OTC traded prices are favorable with respect to exchange quotes, indicating the prevalence of an OTC discount. This...

Using a unique data set of individual professional forecasts, we document disagreement about the future path of monetary policy, particularly at longer horizons. The stark differences in short rate forecasts imply strong disagreement about the risk-return trade-off of longer-term bonds....