Forecasting exchange rate movements is extremely difficult. While the usual forecast requires determining the size and sign of change, we investigate if the direction of change alone is easier to forecast. The accuracy rate of monthly forecasts based on an economic model is compared with random...

This study tests for the existence of financial contagion, using a method that allows an incubation period before contagion takes effect. We define contagion as an increase in cross-market linkages following shocks. With daily data on Asian stock markets during the 1997-98 crisis, we find...

Recently, there has been much interest in modeling time-varying higher-order conditional moments in the density estimation context. These studies employ a moment-based methodology to test their specification of higher-order conditional moments. We compare the size and power of these moment-based...