performs well across the real-time data sets, consistently giving well-calibrated forecast densities. The equal-weight strategy … generates poorly-calibrated forecast densities for the US and Australian samples. There is little difference between the two …

detrending filters. The resulting ensemble produces well-calibrated forecast densities for US inflation in real time, in contrast …

forecast densities. To illustrate the usefulness of our approach, we calculate the probability of a negative output gap at …

time-varying models of the relationship between inflation and the output gap. The forecast densities for inflation reflect …-weight strategy performs well, consistently giving well-calibrated forecast densities. The equal-weight strategy generates poorly …-calibrated forecast densities for the US and Australian samples. There is little difference between the two strategies for our New Zealand …