As observed in the financial crisis, CDS spreads tend to increase simutaneously as a reaction to common shocks. Focusing on the spillover effects triggered by extreme events, we propose a credit risk analysis tool by applying credit default swap spread returns to the concept of 4CoVaR suggested...

A flexible statistical approach for the analysis of time-varying dynamics of transaction data on financial markets is here applied to intra-day trading strategies. A local adaptive technique is used to successfully predict financial time series, i.e., the buyer and the seller-initiated trading...

It was evident that credit default swap (CDS) spreads have been highly correlated during the recent financial crisis. Motivated by this evidence, this study attempts to investigate the extent to which CDS markets across regions, maturities and credit ratings have integrated more in crisis. By...

For many applications, analyzing multiple response variables jointly is desirable because of their dependency, and valuable information about the distribution can be retrieved by estimating quantiles. In this paper, we propose a multi-task quantile regression method that exploits the potential...

Systemically important banks are connected and have dynamic dependencies of their default probabilities. An extraction of default factors from cross-sectional credit default swaps (CDS) curves allows to analyze the shape and the dynamics of the default probabilities. Extending the Dynamic Nelson...

We develop a dynamic model to simultaneously characterize the liquidity demand and supply in limit order book. The joint dynamics is modelled in a unified Vector Functional AutoRegressive (VFAR) framework. We derive a closed-form maximum likelihood estimator under sieves and establish asymptotic...

Estimating natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is important for understanding the joint dynamics of unemployment, inflation, and inflation expectation. However, existing literature falls short of endogenizing inflation expectation together with NAIRU in a model consistent way. We estimate a...

With increasing wind power penetration more and more volatile and weather dependent energy is fed into the German electricity system. To manage the risk of windless days and transfer revenue risk from wind turbine owners to investors wind power derivatives were introduced. These insurance-like...

The JEL classification system is a standard way of assigning key topics to economic articles in order to make them more easily retrievable in the bulk of nowadays massive literature. Usually the JEL (Journal of Economic Literature) is picked by the author(s) bearing the risk of suboptimal...

Analysis of monthly disaggregated data from 1978 to 2016 on US household inflation expectations reveals that exposure to news on inflation and monetary policy helps to explain inflation expectations. This remains true when controlling for household personal characteristics, their perceptions of...