The unit root revolution in time series modeling has created substantial interest in non-stationarity and its implications for empirical modeling. Beyond the original interest in trend vs.di¤erence non-stationarity, there has been renewed interest in testing and modeling structuralbreaks. The...

This paper proposes the Student's t Dynamic Linear Regression (St-DLR) model as an alternative to the various extensions/modifications of the ARCH type volatility model. The St-DLR differs from the latter models of volatility because it can incorporate exogenous variables in the conditional...

Most of empirical modeling involves the use of Ordinary Least Squares regression where the residuals are assumed normal, independent, and identically distributed. In finite samples, these assumptions becomes critical for accurate estimations, however, in macroeconomics in particular, these...

Econometric modeling based on the Student’s t distribution introduces an additional parameter — the degree of freedom. In this paper we use a simulation study to investigate the ability of (i) the GARCH-t model (Bollerslev, 1987) to estimate the true degree of freedom parameter and (ii) the...

We investigate the implications of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) for interstate confl ict. We set up a two-stage game with three competing importers, where fi rst, two of the countries decide on whether to initiate war against each other, and subsequently, all three countries select their...