Human and earth systems are extremely complex processes. The modeling of these systems to assess the effects of climate change is an activity fraught with uncertainty. System models typically involve the linking of a series of computer codes, each of which is a detailed model of some physical or...

The purpose of this paper is to document the results of our application of the Edmonds-Reilly Model (ERM) using several scenarios provided for an Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) project comparing global models. Because the output of this exercise is data-rich, most...

Many current global warming mitigation policy proposals call for large, near-term reductions in CO{sub 2} emissions, thereby entailing high initial carbon emission tax rates or permit prices. This paper claims that these high initial tax rates or permit prices are not cost-effective in achieving...

In 1989 the US Department of Transportation (DOT), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released a set of models for analysis of chemical hazards on personal computers. The models, known collectively as ARCHIE (Automated Resource for Chemical...

This paper is an overview of part of the beam optics code development effort in the Accelerator Technology Division at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The aim of this effort is to improve our capability to design advanced beam optics systems. The work reported is being carried out by a...

The new 18-sector Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model is designed for convenient study of future industrial energy consumption, taking into account the composition of production, energy prices, and certain kinds of policy initiatives. Electricity and aggregate fossil fuels are...

With the ratification of the Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT), there has been increased interest in lowering the nuclear test ban threshold from its present level of 150 kilotons and much debate about what this lower threshold should be. The uncertainties associated with verifying the TTBT,...

1991 was continued rapid growth for the Santa Fe Institute (SFI) as it broadened its interdisciplinary research into the organization, evolution and operation of complex systems and sought deeply the principles underlying their dynamic behavior. Research on complex systems--the focus of work at...