We study a simplification of a previously proposed model of technology evolution to understand the behavior of performance curves, which describe how a technology improves with increasing cumulative production. The model decomposes a technology or production process into components that get...

Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early hypothesis made by Theodore Wright in 1936 is that cost decreases...

"We live in an age of increasing complexity--an era of accelerating technology and global interconnection that holds more promise, and more peril, than any other time in human history. The fossil fuels that have powered global wealth creation now threaten to destroy the world they helped build....