The impact of the choice of the lag length on tests for the number of cointegration relations in a vector autoregressive (VAR) process is investigated. It is shown that the asymptotic distribution of likelihood ratio (LR) tests for the cointegrating rank remains unchanged if the true data...

A small macroeconomicmodel is constructed starting from a German money demand relation for M3 based on quarterly, seasonally unadjusted data for the period from 1976 to 1996. In contrast to previous studies we build a vector error correction model for M3, GNP, an inflation rate and an interest...

Die in der Marktforschungspraxis durchgeführten Datenanalysen beruhen im allgemeinen auf der stufenweisen Anwendung verschiedener Techniken zur Verdichtung der in den Daten enthaltenen Information und der Suche nach Einflußstrukturen. Üblich sind z.B. häufig die Kombiantion von...

Theory in time series analysis is often developed in the context of finite-dimensional models for the data generating process. Whereas corresponding estimators such as those of a conditional mean function are reasonable even if the true dependence mechanism is of a more complex structure, it is...

Bootstrap confidence intervals for impulse responses computed from autoregressive processes are considered. A detailed analysis of the methods in current use shows that they are not very reliable in some cases. In particular, there are theoretical reasons for them to have actual coverage...

If one abstracts from specially organized markets like stock or commodity exchanges, (international) trade relies on bargaining between the interested parties. Whereas earlier the results of bargaining were seen as unpredictable or determined by an at most vaguely defined concept of (relative)...

We consider the problem of estimating quantile regression coefficients in errors-in-variables models. When the error variables for both the response and the manifest variables have a joint distribution that is spherically symmetric but otherwise unknown, the regression quantile estimates based...