We study the magnitude, the determinants and the electoral consequences of pre-electoral fiscal manipulation by incumbent politicians. To this aim, we build a dataset covering all the Italian municipalities. We document several facts. First, there is a clear political cycle in the path of...

Most of the important models in finance rest on the assumption that randomness is explained through a normal random variable because, in general, the use of alternative models is obstructed by the difficulty of calibrating and simulating them. In this paper, we empirically study models for...

We analyse the results of a survey conducted by the Bank of Italy in the spring of 2012 on Italian science and technology parks. First we describe the main features of science parks in Italy. Then we investigate whether they have been effective in improving the economic performance and...

Sample surveys providing high quality information on both total household expenditure (consumption) and income are not commonly available. Nevertheless, surveys focusing on income usually do collect some information on expenditure data. A main drawback of this practice is that it could let some...

The applied literature on adaptive learning has mostly focused on small, linear models, with homogenous expectations. In non-linear models heterogeneous expectations prevail and the process through which agents select (and change) a forecasting model becomes a necessary ingredient of the...

Two main hypotheses are usually put forward to explain the productivity advantages of larger cities: agglomeration economies and firm selection. Combes et al. (2012) propose an empirical approach to disentangle these two effects and fail to find any impact of selection on local productivity...

We investigate the possible existence of asymmetries among Euro Area countries� reactions to the European Central Bank monetary policy. Our analysis is based on a Structural Dynamic Factor model estimated on a large panel of Euro Area quarterly variables. Although the introduction of the...

We contribute to the debate on how to assess the size of the underground or shadow economy with a reinterpretation of the traditional Currency Demand Approach (CDA) � la Tanzi. We introduce three main innovations. First, we take as dependent variable in the money demand equation a direct...

The paper evaluates the effectiveness of a major Italian place-based policy (Contratti di Programma), by means of which the state approves and finances industrial projects proposed by private firms. Using the areas to be exposed to the same policy at a later date as counterfactuals, the study...

This paper shows that vertical specialisation can increase the elasticity of trade to income, hence explaining dramatic events such as the great trade collapse. We argue that a change in the extent of vertical specialisation affects the elasticity of trade to income, while a mere change in...