This paper compares the true, ex-ante forecasting performance of a micro-based model against both a standard macro model and a random walk. In contrast to existing literature, which is focused on longer horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over horizons from one day to one month (the...

Based on basic financial models and reports in the business press, exchange rate movements are generally believed to affect the value of nonfinancial firms. In contrast, the empirical research on nonfinancial firms typically produces fewer significant exposures estimates than researchers...

This paper examines how China's exports are affected by exchange rate shocks from countries who supply intermediate inputs to China. We build a simple small open economy model with intermediate goods trade to show that due to the intraregional trade in intermediate goods, a devaluation of other...

This paper investigates the size and nature of exchange rate pass through to import prices for a panel of 14 emerging economies. We firstly set out a stylized model in which import prices are dependent upon the exchange rate, marginal cost and the mark up. We employed methods which account for...

Three of the most important recent facts in global macroeconomics - the sustained rise in the US current account deficit, the stubborn decline in long run real rates, and the rise in the share of US assets in global portfolio - appear as anomalies from the perspective of conventional wisdom and...

Fixing the exchange rate stabilises inflation and reduces monetary seignoriage, a key source of financing under the fiscal dominance hypothesis. However, the link between fixed exchange rate regimes and fiscal discipline in emerging markets has been found to be weak. This paper thoroughly...

This paper investigates the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on Turkish manufacturing employment and wages using data for a panel of manufacturing industries over the period 1981-1999. The net effect of depreciations are found to be negative for both employment and wages, though the effects...

The change in regime in India from a multi-currency peg to a floating price convertibility provides sufficient motivation for a preliminary analysis of the country s exchange rate behaviour and management between 1993-99.Using international experience as a comparator, the paper finds several...

Menu prices from 13 international restaurant franchises that operate in both El Paso, Texas and Ciudad Juarez, Mexico are utilized to examine the behavior over time of the peso/dollar exchange rate. Parametric and non-parametric tests indicate that the price ratio alone provides a biased...

This paper uses hybrid models that combine economic fundamentals and micro-market variables to investigate the behaviour of US/Jamaica exchange rate. The co-integration analysis applied to post 2000 monthly data indicates, in contrast to previous studies done on Jamaica that these models give a...