This paper documents the existence of a significant forecast error on crude oil futures, particularly evident since the mid-1990s, which is negative on average and displays a non-trivial cyclical component (risk premium). We show that the forecast error on oil futures could have been explained...

This paper argues that consideration of world inequality should cause us to re-examine the key concepts underlying the welfare approach to the measurement of income inequality and the inter-relation between the measurement of inequality and the measurement of poverty. There are three reasons why...

In this paper we test different theories on debt maturity that can be ascribed to either the demand or the supply side of the market. Firm risk, asymmetric information, agency costs are all aspects that should be considered in the analysis. We also include leverage in the firm decision process...

Policy evaluation based on the estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with aggregate macroeconomic time series rests on the assumption that a representative agent can be identified, whose behavioural parameters are independent of the policy rules. Building on earlier work by...

Il lavoro analizza gli effetti sul costo del lavoro determinati dal livello e dalla composizione del prelievo fiscale su tale fattore produttivo. Esso fornisce in particolare una valutazione quantitativa della traslazione dell�imposta sui costi con riferimento a quattordici paesi...

This paper discusses the role that macroeconomic uncertainty plays in banks� decisions on the optimal asset allocation. Using a portfolio model recently proposed in the literature, the paper aims at disentangling how Italian banks choose between loans and risk-free assets when uncertainty...

This paper presents new evidence on the monetary transmission mechanism based on the effects of unexpected monetary policy shocks on 21 manufacturing industries in 5 OECD countries (France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the US). The goal is twofold. First, to document the crossindustry...

Why do some countries suffer from backward financial institutions and weak corporate governance rules? We show that, even if, overall, the economy would benefit corporate governance reforms, not all the agents would stand to gain from the improvement. In particular, entrepreneurs and firms that...

The prices of futures contracts on short-term interest rates are commonly used by central banks to gauge market expectations concerning monetary policy decisions. Excess returns - the difference between futures rates and the realized rates - are positive, on average, and statistically...

This paper aims to describe non-respondents in the Bank of Italy�s Survey of Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) and to measure the underestimation of income and wealth attributable to non-response. The evidence confirms that non-response is not random, since it is more frequent among...