In this study, we suggest a framework to investigate and recover the actual impact of extreme online ratings and to understand biases in suppliers' expectations about box office sales, based on the nature of extreme behaviors, willingness to rate and skepticism, and information symmetry in the...

In this study, we explore the issue of how to enhance forecast of the box office sales, an all-time question for managers in the motion picture industry. The conceptual core of our approach is the expected sales. The expected sales of agents in the movie market (i.e. screen managers at supply...

It is well known that an unexpected level change in time series can cause persistent forecasting errors, depending on the change size and the underlying time series process. This relationship is demonstrated particularly with macroeconomic and financial time series. Forecasting literature...

The effect of sticker shock, price difference between reference price and shelf price, is crucial in forecasting consumer demand. In marketing literature, several papers have modeled the impact of reference prices on brand choice via the sticker shock formulation. However, the effect of sticker...

In this study we examine the long term behavior of stock returns. The analysis reveals that negative autocorrelations of the returns exist for a super-long horizon as long as 10 years. This pattern, however, contrasts to predictions of previous stock price models which include random walks. We...

Different data frequency is a common problem in many research fields; therefore, it should be handled before a particular study is well under way. Many novel ideas including disaggregation techniques, which are the major interest of this study, have been suggested to mitigate the nuisances of...

This empirical paper compares the forecasting accuracy of a two-stage MNL model with that of an ordinary MNL model. The explanatory variables used in this study include individual choice set and physiological responses of the subject. Designed experiment was conducted to acquire the choice set...

This paper proposes a brand-level forecasting model that incorporates both first purchase diffusion and the replacement component in sales. The model consists of a two-stage procedure in which customers are presented with purchase occasions according to a diffusion process or replacement...

In order to explain the U-shaped pattern of autocorrelations of stock returns i.e., autocorrelations starting around 0 for short-term horizons and becoming negative and then moving toward 0 for long-term horizons, researchers suggested the use of a state-space model consisting of an I(1)...

Investing in micro-loan market has become one of the most famous instrument in alternative finance due to the fact that its rate of return is comparable to other risky financial instruments and it places investors in the position of philanthropists and induce “enjoyment”. In terms of...