standard deviation of individual forecasts around the median Consensus Forecast as proxy for forecast uncertainty. Our sample … react significantly to inflation forecast uncertainty by reducing their policy rates in times of higher inflation … forecast uncertainty. We conclude with some implications for optimal monetary policy rules and central bank watchers. …

time-varying. Prespecified regressions of forecast errors on forecast revisions show that the staff's GDP forecast errors … correlate with its GDP forecast revisions, particularly for forecasts made more than two weeks from the start of a FOMC meeting …

country- and variable-specific effects of central bank transparency on forecast accuracy and their dispersion among a large … set of professional forecasts of financial and macroeconomic variables. More communication even increases forecast errors …

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting … superiority of the Bank's forecast cannot be asserted, when compared with genuine ex-ante real time forecasts from an independent …

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is a successful forecast targeting central bank. It … forecasts, and forecasts from econometric models outside the central bank. We find that the superiority of the bank's forecast …

bring forecast gains when included in forecasting models and can also inform scenario and risk analysis in projection …

offsets biases and reduces the forecast error variance. Such model diversification spreads the risks of errors (i …

then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those …