We present a framework for sequential decision making in problems described by graphical models. The setting is given by dependent discrete random variables with associated costs or revenues. In our examples, the dependent variables are the potential outcomes (oil, gas or dry) when drilling a...

Arbitrage theory is used to price forward (futures) contracts in energy markets, where the underlying assets are non-tradeable. The method is based on the so-called 'fitting of the yield curve' technique from interest rate theory. The spot price dynamics of Schwartz is generalized to...

The filtering problem (or the dynamic data assimilation problem) is studied for linear and nonlinear systems with continuous state space and over discrete time steps. Filtering approaches based on the conjugate closed skewed normal probability density function are presented. This distribution...

The challenges of estimating hierarchical spatial models to large datasets are addressed. With the increasing availability of geocoded scientific data, hierarchical models involving spatial processes have become a popular method for carrying out spatial inference. Such models are customarily...