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We estimate age-specific HIV incidence and prevalence in Tanzania and Uganda in the late 1990s and forecast forward assuming no change in incidence. Comparisons between our forecasts of HIV prevalence and direct measures from the HIV/AIDS Indicator and Demographic and Health Surveys in the...
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type="main" xml:id="rssc12042-abs-0001" <p>Probabilistic models for infectious disease dynamics are useful for understanding the mechanism underlying the spread of infection. When the likelihood function for these models is expensive to evaluate, traditional likelihood-based inference may be...</p>
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