This study investigates the influence of past volatility on individual investors' forecasting behavior. We conducted two experiments in which we used real stock prices to construct low and high volatility time series, and asked participants to make both point estimates and interval forecasts of...

This study investigates the quality of direct probability judgments and quantile estimates with a focus on calibration and consistency. The two response modes use different measures of miscalibration so it is difficult to compare directly their relative (in)accuracy. We employed a more refined...

The results of an asset market experiment, in which 64 subjects trade two assets oneight markets in a computerized continuous double auction, indicate that objectivelyirrelevant information influences trading behavior. Moreover, positively and negativelyframed information leads to a particular...

In this paper, we apply the bounded rationality approach to aninvestment situation. In a simple setting where an investor decides betweena riskless bond and a risky asset, we distinguish three aspirationlevels: a lowest threshold that one wants to guarantee, an aspirationlevel given by investing...