Data on accident precursors can help in estimating accident frequencies, since they provide a rich source of information on intersystem dependencies. However, Bayesian analysis of accident precursors requires the ability to construct joint prior distributions reflecting such dependencies. For...

Perfect aggregation in Bayesian system reliability analysis has been shown to be extremely unlikely. In other words, aggregation error is almost inevitable. Consequently, analysts have to deal with the following dilemma: on one hand, an aggregate analysis (i.e., an analysis at the system level),...

In this paper, we apply game theory to model strategies of secrecy and deception in a multiple-period attacker-defender resource-allocation and signaling game with incomplete information. At each period, we allow one of the three possible types of defender signals--truthful disclosure, secrecy,...

One defender defends, and multiple heterogeneous attackers attack, an asset. Three scenarios are considered: the agents move simultaneously; the defender moves first; or the attackers move first. We show how the agents' unit costs of defense and attack, their asset evaluations, and the number of...