The paper argues that it is important to realize that the concept of a cycle has rarely been precisely articulated in empirical work and that often researchers are using very different definitions of it. We propose a two-fold classification based upon what series one is measuring a cycle in and...

A persistent question arising in the development of models for the analysis of macroeconomic policy has been the relative role of economic theory and evidence (data) in their construction. This paper looks at some strategies for transforming a Conceptual Model to become a Data-Adjusted Model,...

The paper sets out some simple statistical models and shows that they are capable of generating the observed characteristics of classical cycles in three countries, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Both analytical and simulation work is used for this purpose. These models...

Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVARs) have become one of the major ways of extracting information about the macro economy. One might cite three major uses of them in macro-econometric research. 1. For quantifying impulse responses to macroeconomic shocks. 2. For measuring the degree of...

In this paper we review the evolution of macroeconomic modelling in a policy environment that took place over the past sixty years. We identify and characterise four generations of macro models. Particular attention is paid to the fourth generation -- dynamic stochastic general equilibrium...