Borowska, Agnieszka; Hoogerheide, Lennart; Koopman, Siem Jan - 2019
risk. The key insight behind our importance sampling based approach is the sequential construction of marginal and …We present an accurate and efficient method for Bayesian forecasting of two financial risk measures, Value-at-Risk and …-year-ahead. The latter has recently attracted considerable attention due to the different properties of short term risk and long run …